[Footman614]

I am looking to purchase a pre-owned M850. Yes I know they depreciate a great deal but I’m thinking that going with a pre-owned could put me a little ahead of the depreciation curve. For those of you that have owned similar priced BMW’s,
what have you found your car was worth around 4-5 years into ownership. I figured if I were to lease an M850, my payments would be around $1,300/ month
without putting any money down, my cash outlay for the term of the lease would
be around $46k. If I went with a certified pre-owned and bought a car for around 90k, after 3 years of ownership( putting the car at 4 years old) I would think the car would be worth more than, or at least at $44k. Obviously this would depend on accidents. Mileage and condition wouldn’t be an issue due to the fact that I don’t drive too much and I keep a car in great shape. Any input to this thought process would be appreciated.

[BMW Lunatic]

Originally Posted by Footman614

I am looking to purchase a pre-owned M850. Yes I know they depreciate a great deal but I’m thinking that going with a pre-owned could put me a little ahead of the depreciation curve. For those of you that have owned similar priced BMW’s,
what have you found your car was worth around 4-5 years into ownership. I figured if I were to lease an M850, my payments would be around $1,300/ month
without putting any money down, my cash outlay for the term of the lease would
be around $46k. If I went with a certified pre-owned and bought a car for around 90k, after 3 years of ownership( putting the car at 4 years old) I would think the car would be worth more than, or at least at $44k. Obviously this would depend on accidents. Mileage and condition wouldn’t be an issue due to the fact that I don’t drive too much and I keep a car in great shape. Any input to this thought process would be appreciated.

U really can't plan what's going to happen in the next 4 year of ownership but for shits and giggles one minor accident fender bender whatever comes on carfax you loose 10k immediately and if it shows up as an accident 20k easy if not more .

Learned this the hard way with a 2012 m6 I bought certified pre owned back in 2013 fender bender ( reported as minor accident ) depreciation was insane. Not worth it in my opinion but everyone's situation is different.

Good luck !

[LuvMyE92]

Originally Posted by Footman614

I were to lease an M850... around $46k.

... bought a car for around 90k, after 3 years [it would be worth] $44k.

So, either way, your logic, it costs you $46K, right?

Originally Posted by BMW Lunatic

... one minor accident fender bender whatever comes on carfax you loose 10k immediately

The lunatic points out the sad true fact, and that's why for an expensive new car that I drive daily, or nearly so, in rush hour traffic, a lease is more attractive to me. All things equal, like in the OP's assumptions, the lease protects me from an accident or if BMW does something stupid and all M850s catch on fire at 12K miles, which could affect resale at 11,500 miles.

Every state is different, but here in NC if I buy, I pay sales tax on the purchase price. If I lease, I pay sales tax on the lease payment. Natch YMMV wherever you live.

So with BMW, where they often subsidize leases so much, it's usually to my advantage. Porsche, not so much.

[Footman614]

All comments were correct and did bring me back to my senses. The no worries lease is the way to go. I had purchased my 2017 911 and for 4 years had worries about accidents. Got away unscathed but was lucky. Had a rear end fender bender in my wife's leased MB GLE 400. My thoughts; oh well, not my problem!!!!

Thank you guardian angels!!!

[bloozemanAZ]

Originally Posted by Footman614

All comments were correct and did bring me back to my senses. The no worries lease is the way to go. I had purchased my 2017 911 and for 4 years had worries about accidents. Got away unscathed but was lucky. Had a rear end fender bender in my wife's leased MB GLE 400. My thoughts; oh well, not my problem!!!!

Thank you guardian angels!!!

I too went down the lease path (first time ever) for my 2020 M850i forecasting the depreciation will be a brick. I even laughed at the projected residual in my 36/10K lease as I expect the car to be worth way less on the open market at the time it's up. However, as posted I love the car and generally am buy and hold so illogical passion could come into play with a lease buy out. Fiscal prudence will most likely reign though so I have a back up plan with a trusted friend to buy the car back for me if I do not want to go a different route as long as it doesn't end up in Alaska or Hawaii.

[Footman614]

Bloozeman, If you don't mind me asking, what is the residual value as per your lease?

[Ehloo]

you can lease a 850 for less than 1300. people are getting into m8 around that price. never buy a bmw unless it’s 4-5 years old

[bloozemanAZ]

Originally Posted by Footman614

Bloozeman, If you don't mind me asking, what is the residual value as per your lease?

No problem sharing but had to check the lease doco to find the ridiculous number. My 2020 M850i has a MSRP of 127K (it's fully loaded with all the bells and whistles minus the carbon exterior package along with night vision and the high performance tire/cooling - neither of which have any value in my world). The residual for the 36/10K lease is $70K. My bet is somewhere between $50k to $65K and if I do not want to go a different route my buddy comes into play (I'll provide him the cash) to buy it outright and transfer the title to me with BMWFS none the wiser.

The irony is with my dealer having to do the cerium eradication program on their dime (there's a post on that) the car has 50% of the carbon exterior package on it now. If I buy it out I'll go 3rd party with a better carbon fiber rear diffuser plus exhaust.

[Footman614]

Thanks for the information bloozemanAZ. My son-law has one and he's 1 1/2 years into the lease. Probably around the same MSRP. In 3 years, he will probably have less than 5k miles. I was thinking of buying his at the end of lease if the numbers weren't too crazy. He didn't have his loan papers with him so he didn't know.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by Footman614

Thanks for the information bloozemanAZ. My son-law has one and he's 1 1/2 years into the lease. Probably around the same MSRP. In 3 years, he will probably have less than 5k miles. I was thinking of buying his at the end of lease if the numbers weren't too crazy. He didn't have his loan papers with him so he didn't know.

Most of BMW are leased. I can't recall the stats, but I think it was about 80% of all new bmw are leased. And I'd wager it is more on the higher end (7 and 8 series cars). As a result the price of all BMW, but especially the "premium" Bmw's are roughly 50% or less of MSRP after 3 years.
There is a strong CPO market though, and from years 3-5; they kinda level off to more "normal" numbers like other similar competitors in this space.

To answer your question: roughly 1/3rd, 33% of sticker.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by Footman614

I am looking to purchase a pre-owned M850. Yes I know they depreciate a great deal but I’m thinking that going with a pre-owned could put me a little ahead of the depreciation curve. For those of you that have owned similar priced BMW’s,
what have you found your car was worth around 4-5 years into ownership. I figured if I were to lease an M850, my payments would be around $1,300/ month
without putting any money down, my cash outlay for the term of the lease would
be around $46k. If I went with a certified pre-owned and bought a car for around 90k, after 3 years of ownership( putting the car at 4 years old) I would think the car would be worth more than, or at least at $44k. Obviously this would depend on accidents. Mileage and condition wouldn’t be an issue due to the fact that I don’t drive too much and I keep a car in great shape. Any input to this thought process would be appreciated.

Also keep in mind maintenance isn't cheap and OEM parts come with an "m" tax from bmw.

But if you buy a CPO for 3 years, you're looking at 20-30% cost; vs a new lease at roughly 50% buy back.

[bloozemanAZ]

Originally Posted by Footman614

Thanks for the information bloozemanAZ. My son-law has one and he's 1 1/2 years into the lease. Probably around the same MSRP. In 3 years, he will probably have less than 5k miles. I was thinking of buying his at the end of lease if the numbers weren't too crazy. He didn't have his loan papers with him so he didn't know.

Sounds like at 18 months into the lease he has a 2019 and yes if properly optioned (e.g., including comfort seating which is standard in the 2020s) plus carbon fiber roof, full leather, B&W audio, full drivers assistance packages, etc. his MSRP is likely the same. The irony is I almost went with the 36/7500 lease option but I signed pre-covid19 and the 7500 miles per year would barely cover my daily commute plus a couple of road trips so I went with the 10K option.

In hindsight I'll never hit 30K in the 3-year lease as outside of a couple of road trips this year (all covid-19 safe) the car is a garage queen outside of errands and my several times a week performance run all putting a total of 4300 miles since driving away from the dealer early last December. I've joked with the wife that if next year has any normalcy whatsoever we'll be doing road trips galore in the M850i given I have miles to spare in the 30K total in the lease.