[Wolfman64]

Originally Posted by Resjudicata

thanks, I appreciate your advice. we do have several other vehicles. if I thought it would pass, I'd agree 100%. But my wife at nearly 40 still gets car sick, and so does all the women in her family. her two sisters, her mom, her aunts, and her kids. all car sick, all the time.
Also my kid does it in every setting. I thought it was launching or sport mode, so I kept the car in comfort. I thought it was top up or top down; but she pukes in EVERY case. I thought it was potholes or traffic, but she puked in clear weather in a no traffic weekend.
[p.s. I couldn't believe we were doing 80+ on roads that's normally bumper to bumper traffic this past holiday weekend]

no matter what I'm positively sure, my kid and wife will puke everytime in the car. and I'm at that age where all my friends have their own lives, and I'm never driving alone without anyone in my cars.

.

Thank you for the back story! It certainly helps to understand your rationale.
Given the hereditary nature of car sickness it appears a bit less about the 850 but finding the right cars for your family.
Good luck with any choice you will proceed with...

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by Vic55

I checked Carvana and they will only bid if you buy a car within the same transaction. So thats out the door.

Used car values are clearly driven by auction sales and that data sampling. All of my wholesalers have always based their ACV's in some regards to MMR and those values (derived by Manheim). On commodity based cars like the ones we are talking about (Im not referring to unique cars like certain Ferrari's, Bugattis, etc)... we need auction data and right now there is none. Auctions are closed and there is no information but the 8 series in general was soft from almost day one with immediate discounts beyond holdback of invoice.

I have only one sale for an M850i Vert and it was in November for 86k with 1200 or so miles. If your car was an MSRP of 120k--- my guys say its sub 70k today if not worse. The market just has no certainty based on factors that are normally used in the past. They wont bid on a car that they cant sell.

If you paid cash (I think I read it above) its a sunken cost and if liquidity is not in the need for you personally right- hold that car. The curve is intense right now and while it will always be steep its excessively so right now.

Originally Posted by Vic55

I checked Carvana and they will only bid if you buy a car within the same transaction. So thats out the door.

Used car values are clearly driven by auction sales and that data sampling. All of my wholesalers have always based their ACV's in some regards to MMR and those values (derived by Manheim). On commodity based cars like the ones we are talking about (Im not referring to unique cars like certain Ferrari's, Bugattis, etc)... we need auction data and right now there is none. Auctions are closed and there is no information but the 8 series in general was soft from almost day one with immediate discounts beyond holdback of invoice.

I have only one sale for an M850i Vert and it was in November for 86k with 1200 or so miles. If your car was an MSRP of 120k--- my guys say its sub 70k today if not worse. The market just has no certainty based on factors that are normally used in the past. They wont bid on a car that they cant sell.

If you paid cash (I think I read it above) its a sunken cost and if liquidity is not in the need for you personally right- hold that car. The curve is intense right now and while it will always be steep its excessively so right now.

the msrp was close to $140k, it's got all the options. with 1900 miles and bad conditions, yeah even $70k is roughly half.

I guess holding it for 3 years, I'll probably see the same $70k as I would today.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by Wolfman64

Thank you for the back story! It certainly helps to understand your rationale.
Given the hereditary nature of car sickness it appears a bit less about the 850 but finding the right cars for your family.
Good luck with any choice you will proceed with...

Originally Posted by Wolfman64

Thank you for the back story! It certainly helps to understand your rationale.
Given the hereditary nature of car sickness it appears a bit less about the 850 but finding the right cars for your family.
Good luck with any choice you will proceed with...

yes

[Vic55]

Originally Posted by Resjudicata

the msrp was close to $140k, it's got all the options. with 1900 miles and bad conditions, yeah even $70k is roughly half.

I guess holding it for 3 years, I'll probably see the same $70k as I would today.

All bad things come to an end.... in the car business I call this a black rain. Its where no one will buy a car but its only a delay. Now I dont think the used values would bounce back to pre COVID but there should be some sort of correction or like I said a slow down on the curve.

With 2k miles you can put more on and not really worry about further depreciation mileage wise. If you were over 10k that might put a damper on things but for now drive it. I have a slew of depreciating assets but the worst of the lot is the F90 M5- that thing is an anchor in a big ocean but I love the drive so I keep enjoying it. And this was with a factory discount well back of holdback into reserves.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by Vic55

All bad things come to an end.... in the car business I call this a black rain. Its where no one will buy a car but its only a delay. Now I dont think the used values would bounce back to pre COVID but there should be some sort of correction or like I said a slow down on the curve.

With 2k miles you can put more on and not really worry about further depreciation mileage wise. If you were over 10k that might put a damper on things but for now drive it. I have a slew of depreciating assets but the worst of the lot is the F90 M5- that thing is an anchor in a big ocean but I love the drive so I keep enjoying it. And this was with a factory discount well back of holdback into reserves.

that's the kicker, I seriously doubt I'll be driving it knowing that every time I need to disinfect and clean up the constant puke.

msrp was just shy of 140, I paid 130, I think I'd lucky to get 80k. today or in 3 years. so minus the carry costs of probably $10k over 3 years (taxes, insurance, etc); I'll be selling for 70-80k in 3 years and the car will not have moved 10 miles in 3 years.

I think it's probably a lose-lose either way. one way just delays the inevitable.

[bloozemanAZ]

Originally Posted by Resjudicata

As someone who was recently seen a 7 figure loss in his stock accounts and a 6 figure loss in his IRA accounts, a couple grand on car isn't going to "move the needle" for me.

Amen and in the same boat (minus the car aspect as have the entire lease for 3 years in a high-yield savings at ~2% APR and auto-payments coming out of it). Year-to-date across my portfolio is absolutely brutal to even look at. However, just like you time is on our side before we'll need the money so we should recoup it all and put some positive gains on top as well.

Crazy times all around the board and just thankful I'm not one of the 10M plus in the US whom have lost their jobs due to COVID-19. My heart goes out to all of those in that number that have been living paycheck-to-paycheck and are now in serious trouble. I've mentioned before that I took my current gig at a Healthcare Insurer (largest in the state) in August of last year as a pathway to semi-retirement.

Now it seems like an absolutely fortuitous move as my job is 100% secured given the current situation and our services being absolutely essential to helping Arizona through this crisis. We had a company wide Zoom meeting last week in which there was a Q&A session and of course a question was asked in regards to potential layoffs. We all as a leadership team without hesitation emphatically stated "no".

Of course on the back-end we're projecting our losses from voluntarily covering all COVID-19 testing free of cost along with waving all co-pays, etc. for any treatment necessary. On top of that the expected groups of membership that will likely not be able to pay their premiums until the situation is long past (with zero penalties). We can weather this storm and are 100% dedicated to supporting our customers.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by bloozemanAZ

Amen and in the same boat (minus the car aspect as have the entire lease for 3 years in a high-yield savings at ~2% APR and auto-payments coming out of it). Year-to-date across my portfolio is absolutely brutal to even look at. However, just like you time is on our side before we'll need the money so we should recoup it all and put some positive gains on top as well.

Crazy times all around the board and just thankful I'm not one of the 10M plus in the US whom have lost their jobs due to COVID-19. My heart goes out to all of those in that number that have been living paycheck-to-paycheck and are now in serious trouble. I've mentioned before that I took my current gig at a Healthcare Insurer (largest in the state) in August of last year as a pathway to semi-retirement.

Now it seems like an absolutely fortuitous move as my job is 100% secured given the current situation and our services being absolutely essential to helping Arizona through this crisis. We had a company wide Zoom meeting last week in which there was a Q&A session and of course a question was asked in regards to potential layoffs. We all as a leadership team without hesitation emphatically stated "no".

Of course on the back-end we're projecting our losses from voluntarily covering all COVID-19 testing free of cost along with waving all co-pays, etc. for any treatment necessary. On top of that the expected groups of membership that will likely not be able to pay their premiums until the situation is long past (with zero penalties). We can weather this storm and are 100% dedicated to supporting our customers.

yeah we are a similar boat. we both will probably sell or end lease in 3 years; both losing about 40-50k in fees, taxes, lease payments and/or depreciation. I don't think it's going to make a dollar difference either way.

the only difference is you will have 40,000 puke free happy miles on yours. and I'll have 2,000 puke covered miles followed with a stack professional detailing bills.

[bloozemanAZ]

Originally Posted by Resjudicata

yeah we are a similar boat. we both will probably sell or end lease in 3 years; both losing about 40-50k in fees, taxes, lease payments and/or depreciation. I don't think it's going to make a dollar difference either way.

the only difference is you will have 40,000 puke free happy miles on yours. and I'll have 2,000 puke covered miles followed with a stack professional detailing bills.

Honestly, that 40K worth of puke free happy miles vs 2K puke covered and professional detailing bills literally made me LOL. To that point you may need just to find some "me" time in the car and have some fun. I know that isn't easy as the family comes first.

In fact on Saturday as I announced to my wife "I'm going for a drive" that was instantaneously shit canned from reality and we both spent the next several hours cleaning the house. Point being I told my wife to cancel the monthly maid service scheduled for Saturday as I didn't want any "outsiders" in the house given COVID-19. Family first and there was no way I was going to survive the rest of the weekend if I did not participate in the cleaning.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by bloozemanAZ

Honestly, that 40K worth of puke free happy miles vs 2K puke covered and professional detailing bills literally made me LOL. To that point you may need just to find some "me" time in the car and have some fun. I know that isn't easy as the family comes first.

In fact on Saturday as I announced to my wife "I'm going for a drive" that was instantaneously shit canned from reality and we both spent the next several hours cleaning the house. Point being I told my wife to cancel the monthly maid service scheduled for Saturday as I didn't want any "outsiders" in the house given COVID-19. Family first and there was no way I was going to survive the rest of the weekend if I did not participate in the cleaning.

it's funny because it's true. we cancelled our maids too.

[Resjudicata]

so I got a quote to buy my $140k car for $79k wholesale. I found 2 online retailing for $84k, one is not similar but the other is kinda similar except missing a few options that mine has for a couple grand. I can't believe that 10 months and 1800 miles would produce a 44% drop in prices.
even in today's market, the other cars in our "fleet" include a 2019 SUV that's wholesaling for only a 20% drop and retailing a 10% drop after nearly 2 years and 10k miles.

Like everyone said, I guess I'm going to put mine in storage for a decade and see if prices improve, although with this 8 series, I don't think it's possible.
but maybe the same 50% in 2-3 years is possible.

[bloozemanAZ]

Originally Posted by Resjudicata

so I got a quote to buy my $140k car for $79k wholesale. I found 2 online retailing for $84k, one is not similar but the other is kinda similar except missing a few options that mine has for a couple grand. I can't believe that 10 months and 1800 miles would produce a 44% drop in prices.
even in today's market, the other cars in our "fleet" include a 2019 SUV that's wholesaling for only a 20% drop and retailing a 10% drop after nearly 2 years and 10k miles.

Like everyone said, I guess I'm going to put mine in storage for a decade and see if prices improve, although with this 8 series, I don't think it's possible.
but maybe the same 50% in 2-3 years is possible.

Totally agree with all cash in I would not take $80K whatsoever as at this point (calling out all the accountants in the group) it is purely a sunk cost. That said I'll go back to the "me time" in the car. Obviously not something that is happening in the near distance future but once things normalize you may be able to meet clients at the local Starbucks without the family involved. Just a thought and I'll be the first to recognize I can never wear another's shoes as everyone's situation is different. Rather it is just a positive thought on enjoying the car vs a full mothball situation.

[mjr24]

I don’t understand why anyone buys high-end models, let alone in cash. Lease lease lease. You buy in cash when you have 50 mil in the bank.

That car isn’t going to be worth anymore in 20 years.

Might be a dumb idea....but have you tried Turo? Renting the car out a few days a month might pay a lot of that monthly payment so you aren’t just eating all that loss.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by bloozemanAZ

Totally agree with all cash in I would not take $80K whatsoever as at this point (calling out all the accountants in the group) it is purely a sunk cost. That said I'll go back to the "me time" in the car. Obviously not something that is happening in the near distance future but once things normalize you may be able to meet clients at the local Starbucks without the family involved. Just a thought and I'll be the first to recognize I can never wear another's shoes as everyone's situation is different. Rather it is just a positive thought on enjoying the car vs a full mothball situation.

yeah, kinda sad that I can buy the same car for $60k less than what I paid 9 months ago. at nearly $6k/month it's an expensive toy!

that said my 2019 qx80 is still retailing for $70k and I paid $80k. so almost 2 years later and 10k miles on that one, it's only $400/more. but it's not nearly as much fun.
even today wholesaler offered me $68k for mine today, that's only a $12 in 24 months.

at 7% down per year, it's a lot better than 46% in under a year.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by mjr24

I don't understand why anyone buys high-end models, let alone in cash. Lease lease lease. You buy in cash when you have 50mil in the bank.

That car isn't going to be worth anymore in 20 years.

Might be a dumb idea....but have you tried Turo? Maybe rent the car out a few days a month might pay a lot of that monthly payment. You can at least not just eat all that loss.

Originally Posted by mjr24

I don't understand why anyone buys high-end models, let alone in cash. Lease lease lease. You buy in cash when you have 50mil in the bank.

That car isn't going to be worth anymore in 20 years.

Might be a dumb idea....but have you tried Turo? Maybe rent the car out a few days a month might pay a lot of that monthly payment. You can at least not just eat all that loss.

I ran the numbers, it's almost identical to lease or buy it. if you lease 2 cars for 3 years back to back, 99 times out of 100, it's the same as buying and selling in 6 years.

the only difference is that you have a guaranteed buy and sell price with % of residual assuming you stay under miles and no damage on turn in.

if you have a lease ending today, vs 3 years from now, that might make a difference. but in the long run, Leasing is not any better than buy and sell in 6 years vs 2 leases.

except that you have 2 new cars instead of 1 new car.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by Resjudicata

I ran the numbers, it's almost identical to lease or buy it. if you lease 2 cars for 3 years back to back, 99 times out of 100, it's the same as buying and selling in 6 years.

the only difference is that you have a guaranteed buy and sell price with % of residual assuming you stay under miles and no damage on turn in.

if you have a lease ending today, vs 3 years from now, that might make a difference. but in the long run, Leasing is not any better than buy and sell in 6 years vs 2 leases.

except that you have 2 new cars instead of 1 new car.

Disagree. The M850 might be, what, a $1500 per month lease? That’s $54k of payments in 3 years. You are saying you are out $70k after 4 months. Easy calculation here. That car will be worth even less in 2.5 years even if you don’t drive it another mile.

[Resjudicata]

also if you lease you have a penalty for early turn in. the bmw is upside down; but my qx80 has equity.

I looked at trading in my qx80 for an x7, and the Infiniti dealer offer buy back straight buyback at nearly 10% of my price paid.

if I was on lease, they guy told me that I'd owe about -13% in the hole vs +12% gains. so it would be better to buy than lease.

but it's not the same category of cars. I'll admit BMW is another league.

[WCH]

Turo is an interesting idea once we aren't stuck at home.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Disagree. The M850 might be, what, a $1500 per month lease? That's $54k of payments in 3 years. You are saying you are out $70k after 4 months. Easy calculation here. That car will be worth even less in 2.5 years even if you don't drive it another mile.

my m850i is a year old. assuming the value in 2 years is equal to the value today; then the lease vs buy is almost the same. I'm out about 60k vs your 55k lease cost today.

my point isn't today price, it's the cost after 6 years.

even if it drops, the price in 6 years will be equal to the cost of 72 lease payments almost everytime.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Disagree. The M850 might be, what, a $1500 per month lease? That's $54k of payments in 3 years. You are saying you are out $70k after 4 months. Easy calculation here. That car will be worth even less in 2.5 years even if you don't drive it another mile.

you can disagree all day, but you're wrong.

the fees, costs and penalties with a 4% lease [assuming 2 leases] don't equal the true cost to own over a long 6+ year period. and not that many people go beyond, but years 6-10 will exceed the values.

if you never had a car, leased one for 3 years and never bought another car; then yes, it's cheaper to lease.

if you lease 2 cars for 3 years: or buy a car and keep it then sell in 6 years; it's almost identical EVERY time on EVERY car from a 911 to a truck to a Mercedes.

if you lease 3 cars @3 yr, or buy 1 for @9yr; it's cheaper for the 9 yr car.

THE ONLY DIFFERENCE is that you get a new car every couple years with 0 maintenance vs. owning a car.

trust me. I'm right.

[Ozzie8]

Leasing could be a really attractive option for BMW here. But there are three items which get in the way. The interest rate is still above 5%. The residual they offer, which should be WAY better than anything you can get from a private sale, is actually very poor. Finally the forms you need to complete and the information you need to disclose now make a vehicle lease worse than a bank loan.

[Resjudicata]

the exception being that if you're leased ended today, you might be slightly ahead.
but if you own the car, you can sit and wait for virtually $0 cost for next 2 years.
while the other car person had to sign a new lease and pay another $50-60k.

even a $70k car, can't drop to $10k in 5 years with 2 more years.

[Resjudicata]

Originally Posted by Ozzie8

Leasing could be a really attractive option for BMW here. But there are three items which get in the way. The interest rate is still above 5%. The residual they offer, which should be WAY better than anything you can get from a private sale, is actually very poor. Finally the forms you need to complete and the information you need to disclose now make a vehicle lease worse than a bank loan.

Originally Posted by Ozzie8

Leasing could be a really attractive option for BMW here. But there are three items which get in the way. The interest rate is still above 5%. The residual they offer, which should be WAY better than anything you can get from a private sale, is actually very poor. Finally the forms you need to complete and the information you need to disclose now make a vehicle lease worse than a bank loan.

Agreeded 100%