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      11-27-2018, 01:56 PM   #41
mkoesel
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Light trucks will continue to gain marketshare on passenger cars in the US as long as CAFE regulations favor the former, and as long as getting the NHTSA's light truck rubber stamp remains easy to do. Even if the regulatory factors were to change tomorrow, it would require a very specific set or circumstances along with a very long transition period for passenger cars to become more profitable than light trucks.

It is true that a lack of compelling passenger car products can be cited as a legitimate reason for the decline in sales of this class of vehicle from some manufacturers more than others. However, there is another angle as well. It can signal that these manufacturers have successfully convinced a critical mass of their target audience that an SUV is the better buy. If your trucks have become so successful you don't even need cars to hit profit targets anymore, what looks like defeat to the untrained eye may actually be a victory in the marketplace. Consider the $50k+ F150 and Explorer price tags, and remember no one is begging to pay that for a Ford brand sedan of any calibre - a sedan which, even if it existed, would still cost more to make than those trucks.

Also keep in mind the premium market where sedans are a bit more resilient. While it is true that GM will kill the CT6 in the US (just as it is set to get the Blackwing V8), they still have other sedans coming to market next year, and Ford who killed off all of their non-premium sedans still seems interested in Lincoln sedans at least for the time being. Luxury products have large built in profit margin by design, so they are less sensitive to unit sales decrease. And luxury buyers can be more discerning when it comes to vehicle dynamics, with perhaps more among them stubbornly resisting the siren call of the luxury SUV.

The fledgling EV market has potential to make this more interesting as well because a heavier SUV can mean less range than a similar-sized car - something that could get consumers' attention. Furthermore, there isn't the same regulatory benefit to building an electric light truck.
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