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      05-31-2019, 06:16 PM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestRace View Post
The S&P 2800 seems to be the support level. If we break that, that would be real bearish. The risk of recession is rising. I looked at AAPL and their total debt is about 112B which seems fairly high compared to other FAANG stocks. With all the talk about Tesla going bankrupt, its debt is only about 13B with a revenue of about 22B last quarter which is about half. AAPL revenue last quarter is about 250B so its debt is about half as well.

In order to grow, companies have to take on more debts which are already at fairly high level historically, so I am not sure where the growth will be. I don't think more debts will be the answer.

Interesting enough, the China trade war may be the answer. If companies are looking real hard at moving production away from China, they have to invest on production to other South East Asia countries which means they have to spend more money. There will be a F1 race at Hanoi, Vietnam next year which is unthinkable just a few years ago.
I’m seeing some indicators of an economic top, and of course the tariffs aren’t going to help a bit (may be needed for negotiation and/or political purposes, but the cost will be real). While most data remains positive, I’m seeing high values in some collectibles which to me is an indicator of (a) too much heat in the economy and (b) lack of other good investments. The fall in interest rates (10 yr Treas) is pretty dramatic and suggests the US is back as a haven, but lacks growth prospects which would require financing (low loan demand). Very close to moving out of equities and into cash equivalents, short-term maturities, etc.

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